As the year draws to a close, it’s the perfect time to reflect on the performance of my portfolio from my Premium Subscription and assess how it has performed thus far. My watchlist has been evolving constantly as I update preferred entry prices every month based on technical analysis as well as fundamental analysis. I have 2 main watchlists, 1 being a Singapore market-focused watchlist, which focuses on slow and steady capital appreciation with an attractive dividend yield that acts as a form of passive income, and another being a US tech-focused watchlist, which targets high-growth tech companies that offer huge upside potential and limited downside risk.
Because my portfolio allocation is highly concentrated, where the top 5 positions make up more than 75% of my portfolio, the true performance may be skewed as I am more heavily invested in some stocks over others. As such, to provide a more holistic and objective review, I will be setting a few rules on how I gauge the performance of my portfolio. Rules are:
- Each stock will only be bought once and only sold when it is removed from the watchlist
- The buy price will follow the monthly entry price, meaning if it reaches that price or lower, I will open a position
- Each position will be entered at SG$3,000/US$2,000 depending on the portfolio
With the help of StocksCafe, I will then measure the portfolio performance against 3 key indexes, namely SPY, VT, and ES3. The portfolio will be measured on multiple key metrics such as Time-weighted returns (TWR), monthly volatility, max drawdown, etc. Without further delay, let’s dive into the results.
Singapore Portfolio Performance
As expected, the Singapore portfolio has underperformed the SPY and VT in 2024, although it has fallen under expectation as it was supposed to outperform ES3. Despite having big winners like the 3 local banks, DBS (SGX: D05), UOB (SGX: U11), and OCBC (SGX: O39) as well as Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU), the portfolio’s performance was pulled down due to laggards such as Lendlease REIT (SGX: JYEU) and Capitaland China Trust (SGX: AU8U). Overall, the portfolio is up 12.42% with an annualized dividend yield of 7.71% which is very attractive.
Looking at the monthly volatility of ~3.03%, lower than SPY and VT and marginally higher than ES3, as well as the max drawdown being the lowest compared to the 3 key indexes, the portfolio has done well and met expectations. The key objective of this portfolio was centered on having a strong and stable stream of passive income in the form of dividends. As such, the capital gains are just a nice bonus on top.
US Tech Portfolio Performance
As expected, the US Tech portfolio has outperformed all 3 key indexes in 2024. The overall TWR came up to 103% with strong winners such as Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) (4x), Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) (3x) as well as Lemonade (NYSE: LMND) (3x).
Nonetheless, high returns naturally come with higher volatility as the portfolio had a significantly higher monthly volatility and max drawdown in comparison to the 3 key indexes. Despite this, as this portfolio is meant for long-term investing (5-10 years), the short-term volatility is a blessing in disguise as you can DCA more during the lows.
Key Takeaways from 2024
Reflecting on the year, a few critical insights emerge. First, being able to identify trends early will be key to attaining higher portfolio returns. Being an early investor of Palantir which eventually rode the AI trend during the year helped carry the US tech portfolio further. The caveat is that when you are early, you might be buying on a downtrend or down cycle before the stock starts to take off. As an early investor of Palantir since its IPO, I continued investing from its initial IPO price of $9+ up to its peak in 2021 of around $45, and during its low period in 2022-2024. Now with its share price sitting comfortably above the $60 mark, my portfolio is well in the greens.
This leads me to my second insight, which is to have conviction in your own research. A great example would be Palantir, which was not well-liked during its early years, where many deemed it as a “meme stock”. This led to its rapid pump and dump shortly after its IPO. The company and its core product were not well understood by the general masses as it was quite technical. Despite all this, I remained invested as I understood the value of the company. Fast forward to 2024, 4 years later, the stock is booming with many investors flooding in as the company grows larger. Another example would be Sea Ltd, which I have written an analysis about when it was 90% below all time highs. The stock has almost 3x since then. Having a strong conviction behind your own research helps you stay focused, especially when there are so many media channels blasting information everywhere, of which some could be very uninformed or misleading.
Last but not least, having patience and keeping dry powder ready. The reason why I updated my watchlist with a preferred entry price every month was because I knew the market never goes up in a straight line. There are bound to be pullbacks along the way, which allows for opportunities to invest more.
Final Thoughts
Entering into 2025, I believe my watchlist will have minimal changes as I plan to hold these stocks for the long-term. I will only sell or remove them if the long-term investment thesis has changed. The short-term volatility and price movement will not waiver my conviction. I will also employ appropriate options strategies such as the wheel strategy to lower my cost basis and ensure my portfolio is well covered. If you want to maximize profits in 2025 as we kick start into a new bull cycle, and prepare your portfolio for any possible volatility, check out my Premium Subscription! Get access to my personal watchlists, trades I’m excecuting as well as market updates almost every day!